Key week for trial by losholdouts
February was not easy and the last week promises to be no different. This may be key to define the trend of short both in the local market and in the external, still seeking the way to digest the rally observed in recent months. Week concentrated one agenda more than relevant in the macroeconomic field, and even the passage before the Congress of United States of the Fed Chairman, which will generate sensitivity among investors. This latest product of the recently popular views divided within the organism and which endanger the package of monetary stimulus known as QE3.
And there will be more. This week finally reach key audience at the Chamber of appeals of the second district of New York for the trial of the holdouts. Unlike what happened in December, expectations about a ruling favorable to the Government has been diluted in recent weeks, and thus the behavior of the Government securities has reflected it. Thus, they seem to fade out the possibilities for an appeal to the Supreme Court before a possible negative decision, as well as the commitment to the resolution completely reverse the ruling of Judge Thomas Griesa. The Chamber must decide, in principle, two points: the formula of payment - which today is 110% - and if it involves or not to third parties in compliance with the ruling, which could lead to fall in "technical default". The best scenario for the Argentina is to accept its proposal for a new swap, which would imply that she is could not seize the funds of the trust of the Bank of New York (Bony). However, this possibility is today difficult.
This issue not only remain high uncertainty and volatility in the local bond market on wheels next, but will do so in the plaza's actions and you can even put pressure on the marginal dollar. Finally and ultimately to be defined - at least, short-is the level of Argentine risk, which of itself is high if we measure it financially by the EMBI level or the recent rise of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) to five years which jumped almost 60% since the beginning of the year to date.
But the audience is not the only thing to be regarded from the market. The new point of conflict between the nation and the province of Buenos Aires by funds is not one minor issue to closely monitor. The same happens with the macroeconomic signals that can be read, ranging from inflation and the "policy" of freezing of prices, to the extent of the recovery of Brazil - key for local growth this year.
All this in a frame in where Finally, and if we take as a reference to the Merval, the profit taking appears to be taking shape. The leading index is down slightly more than 5% in the last week. Unexpected? For nothing; in fact, expected and why the recommendations of caution that abounded. Can you follow? It will depend on what is heard in the upcoming wheels; Although that does not override specific rebounds before shopping opportunity of trading which, in fact, already are watching.
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